Abstract

This study was under taken in the U.G. thesis work in the Dept. Of SWCE, CAET, OUAT, Bhubaneswar during the year 2018-19. Bargarh district has latitude of 21.3oN and a longitude of 83.6oE. The average rainfall at Bargarh district is around 1337.5 mm, though it receives high amount rainfall but most of the rainfall occurred during kharif. So most of the crops get low yield due to improper crop planning. Thus, this study is proposed to be undertaken with the following objective: Probability analysis of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data of Bargarh district. So rainfall data were collected from OUAT, Agril Meteorology Dept. from 2001 to 2017(17 years) monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall were analyzed .Probability analysis have been made and equations were fitted to different distributions and best fitted equations were tested. Monthly, Annual and seasonal probability analysis of rainfall data shows the probability rainfall distribution of Bargarh district in different months, years and seasons. It is observed that rainfall during June to Sep is slightly less than 1000 mm and cropping pattern like paddy(110 days) may be followed by mustard is suitable to this region. Also if the kharif rain can be harvested and it can be reused for another rabi crop by using sprinkler or drip irrigation, which will give benefit to the farmers. Annual rainfall of Bargarh district is 1337.5 mm at 50% probability level.

Keywords

rainfall, probability analysis, crop planning, Log-normal (2-parameter) distribution, Generalized pareto distribution, Log-normal (3-parameter) distribution, Pearson distribution