Abstract

Changes in weather and climate have been known to profoundly influence the availability of water resources. River Ona in Ibadan is characterized with frequent records of flooding and paucity of hydraulics records. This study determines the effect of global warming on discharge of River Ona. The rainfall (1973-2012), temperature (1973-2012) and discharge records of River Ona (1973-1986) were collected from the Nigeria Metrological Agency (NIMET), OSOT associates consulting engineer, Ibadan and their correlations were determined. The river discharge was measured at midstream and the downstream, respectively. Discharge data was simulated using normal, Log-normal, Log-Pearson and regression analysis model. The calibrated mathematical relationship between discharge, rainfall and temperature was. The developed regression model yielded accuracy of 73%. Sensitivity analysis based on incremental scenarios showed that a drier and warmer climate change scenario results in reduced discharge.

Keywords

weather, river ona, flooding, discharge