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Solar dynamo modes of oscillations and the long -term prediction of solar activity

Physics & Astronomy International Journal
Silvia Duhau,1 Cornelis de Jager2

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We  verify  that  the  values  and  dates  of  occurrence  of  sunspot  maxima  during  Schwabe  sunspot cycles ##19 to 24 as predicted by Derek Justin Schove in 1955 coincide with the actually observed ones with a high degree of accuracy. A question arises from this result: why  is  such  a  deterministic  behavior  apparent  in  a  system,  like  the  solar  dynamo,  that  is  in principle stochastic. We find that solar activity related data may be well represented by the  addition  of  a  constant  level  and  eight  modes  of  oscillation.  The  repetitive  behavior  and the relationships that appears to exist between these modes, opens the possibility for a  long-term  prediction  of  solar  activity.  In  that  line,  we  forecast  the  Gleissberg  cycle  for  the  forthcoming  two  centuries  and  data  on  sunspot  maxima  for  the  next  century.  Thus,  we predict the values and dates of occurrence of sunspot maxima ##25 to 35 and find that  the  new  Episode  of  solar  activity  that  started  during  polar  cycle  #24,  as  a  follow-up  of the 20th century Grand Maximum, is of the Regular type and, as the ongoing Hallstatt oscillation  will  pass  through  zero  from  negative  to  positive  around  the  year  2036,  it  will  last for the remainder of the present millennium. We also find that modes of oscillations are mutually related through a forced non-linear oscillator with a persistent asymmetry. A brief discussion of the origin of this behavior on the excitation of solar dynamo motions by solar-planetary forces is presented.


solar activity, sunspot cycles, toroidal and poloidal proxies, transition state, regular episode, grand maximum, grand minimum