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Confidence bias, hindsight bias and perceptions of risk in motorcyclists


Confidence bias and hindsight bias were investigated as predictors of perceived levels of risk in a sample of motorcyclists. Confidence bias was predictive of both perceived absolute risk and perceived comparative risk. Hindsight bias was predictive of total absolute risk but was only predictive of comparative risk regarding car drivers and not total comparative risk or risk compared to other motorcyclists. In addition, the direction of the relationship with risk perception differed for confidence bias compared to hindsight bias. It appears that confidence and hindsight bias operate through different processes. Personal experience of accidents was not a predictor of perceived risk, but having a friend who had an accident did have an impact.


self-flattering, regression analysis, confidence bias, behaviour